The hottest in the next three years, at least 180

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At least 180 photovoltaic panel manufacturers will be eliminated in the next three years

according to media reports, a report released by relevant institutions on Tuesday said that overcapacity in the global photovoltaic industry is likely to cause at least 180 photovoltaic panel manufacturers to go bankrupt or be merged before 2015

gtmrresearch, a research institution, estimates that the annual average supply of global photovoltaic products will exceed the demand by 35million kW in the next three years. GTM pointed out that the United States, Europe, Canada and other regions with high manufacturing costs will have the highest number of enterprise closures

Mehta said that the manufacturing cost of European, American and Japanese enterprises was more than 80 cents/watt, while that of Chinese enterprises was only cents/watt

he predicts that nearly 60% of existing enterprises will withdraw from the industry in

the report estimates that 54 of the 180 enterprises that withdrew or were merged will be Chinese enterprises. If China does not significantly improve the planning target of photovoltaic power generation installed capacity, this figure may be even higher

1. The photovoltaic giant is really having a hard time

photovoltaic enterprise revenue list

the sharp decline in profits and share prices are unbearable. The photovoltaic industry is looking forward to a meter of sunshine over the winter

the domestic solar photovoltaic power generation industry is now in the dark. A-share photovoltaic concept stocks have been in a downward channel since last year, and there is no sign of rebound. And Chinese concept stocks listed in the United States have frequently staged a shell preservation war. Since the high point, the share price of Wuxi Suntech Power is less than 2% from the peak

(1) the share price hovers at $1, and photovoltaic stocks listed in the United States need to be protected.

(2) inventories soar, and the quotation falls by 40%. In the third quarter, the industry is still in a difficult period.

(2) power stations are built, and Zhejiang enterprises in the photovoltaic industry of solar energy pumps are busy "ploughing"

exporting photovoltaic products to the United States or facing "zero profit"

in 2011, the amount of photovoltaic panels imported by the United States from China rose to $2.65 billion from $213 million in 2005. However, once the two-way friction of photovoltaic cells between China and the United States occurs, the damage of the United States will be more serious. The scale of China's photovoltaic cells exported to the United States is $2billion, while the scale of photovoltaic cell raw materials and equipment exported by the United States to China is about $4billion, and the United States maintains a surplus of $1.88 billion

the main products of domestic photovoltaic enterprises should be sold not to the United States, but to the European market, especially the German market. Shen Hongwen said that the industry is worried that if Germany follows the example of the United States and launches a "double anti" investigation on Chinese photovoltaic enterprises, it will cause a fatal blow to China's photovoltaic industry. At present, the German economy is also in a relatively difficult situation due to the influence of other EU countries, and the development of its photovoltaic industry is also under great pressure. In this case, trade protectionism has begun to rise, which is not good news for domestic photovoltaic enterprises

2. Why did Europe and the United States start with Chinese photovoltaic products?

China's products caused substantial damage or threat to relevant industries in the United States.

the U.S. Department of Commerce made a final ruling on the 10th, determining that the crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and components exported by China to the United States have dumping and subsidies, which basically cleared the way for the United States to impose anti-dumping and countervailing tariffs ("double anti-dumping") on such products

according to the U.S. trade remedy procedure, in addition to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the case still needs the final ruling of the U.S. International Trade Commission. According to the current schedule, the U.S. International Trade Commission is scheduled to make a final ruling around November 23 this year. If the U.S. International Trade Commission also makes an affirmative final determination, that is, such products imported from China cause substantial damage or threat to relevant U.S. industries, the U.S. Department of Commerce will require the customs to impose "double anti" tariffs on relevant products

jealous of the low price of Chinese products, it is claimed that Chinese photovoltaic companies have received illegal subsidies

since this year, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises have suffered a series of bad luck. Soon after the "anti-dumping" stick of EU photovoltaic products to China fell, the "anti subsidy" hammer was raised again. On the 25th of last month, a group called euprosun filed a complaint with European regulators, accusing Chinese photovoltaic companies of receiving illegal subsidies and requiring the EU to impose punitive import tariffs on photovoltaic products produced in China. With the precedent of "anti-dumping", the filing of the EU's "countervailing" complaint seems inevitable

Miao Liansheng, chairman of Yingli Green energy, a domestic photovoltaic enterprise, publicly stated that he had never received any illegal subsidies from the government. "From 2009 to 2011, Yingli's weighted average interest rate was 6.3% - 7.1%, which was consistent with the normal market level." Miao Liansheng said

In recent years, developed countries such as the United States and Europe have intervened in many industries in China through "double anti investigation". In the foreseeable future, the "double anti" will become the main means for countries around the world to restrict and counteract the development of other countries' industries

the so-called "double anti" is a general term of "countervailing duty" and "anti-dumping duty". Among them, anti-dumping duties refer to the import surcharges levied on dumped goods. When the importing country causes damage to the domestic industry due to foreign dumping of a certain product, the importing country imposes an import tax equivalent to the difference between the domestic market price of the exporting country and the dumping price. The purpose is to resist dumping and protect domestic industries. Usually, the relevant parties of the injured industry raise the fact that the exporting country is dumping and request the government agency of their country to levy the anti-dumping duty again. The government agency investigated the price situation of the product and the fact and degree of industrial damage, and confirmed that the exporting country dumped the product at a low price. When Richard Kirkby, the product manager of biesterfeld petroplas engineering polymers, attributed the popularity of the material to its design flexibility, he imposed anti-dumping duties. When the government agency deems it necessary, it may also temporarily charge a deposit equivalent to the tax on the import of the commodity during the investigation period. If the result of the investigation is true, it will be levied as an anti-dumping duty; When dumping is not established, the anti-dumping duty will be refunded

European and American "double anti" Chinese photovoltaic products are in line with the core interests of Europe and the United States

European and American "double anti" Chinese photovoltaic products are in line with the core interests of Europe and the United States. Whether it is for political reasons or based on trade protectionism, what Europe and the United States do is "rule-based". "China's photovoltaic industry has long had problems of market and technology, which has greatly restricted the sustainable development of photovoltaic enterprises."

on the one hand, overseas direct investment will provide photovoltaic enterprises with opportunities to further penetrate the overseas market. Setting up factories locally will undoubtedly enable enterprises to master more field market information, lay their own sales channels, and effectively turn passivity into initiative

on the other hand, the new road does not mean a smooth road. It is easy for photovoltaic enterprises to "go global", but it is not easy to "go well". Previous cases of failure of many enterprises in various industries in overseas investment and mergers and acquisitions deserve our attention

3. It is difficult for photovoltaic enterprises to break through

use "loopholes" to break through

although Chinese photovoltaic enterprises lost the lawsuit, the final ruling seems to leave "loopholes". Chinese enterprises can purchase batteries produced in Taiwan, and then use labor cost advantages to assemble components in the mainland. This "loophole" is due to the United States' arrangement of a pure low-cost labor base in the international division of labor in Chinese Mainland, and China's Taiwan region will become the biggest beneficiary of this "double anti" final ruling. The scope of the "double anti" investigation is limited to battery components originating in Chinese Mainland, which means that products produced by mainland enterprises through Taiwan OEM and exported to the United States are not within the scope of punishment

Taiwan's stock market has suffered a sharp decline recently, but the share prices of solar energy enterprises have risen against the market, and at the close of the 11th, many stocks turned red after buying. In fact, Taiwan has the second largest manufacturing strength of solar energy equipment in the world after the mainland. According to the data of industry research institutions, the output value of solar energy in the third fiscal quarter of 2012 increased by 6.7% year-on-year. When the global excess capacity has not been fully digested, only Taiwan's photovoltaic output increased against the market

setting up factories overseas to transfer production capacity to avoid regulation

in an interview with the media, many industry insiders stressed that transferring the production capacity of photovoltaic modules overseas and directly investing in photovoltaic power stations will become the "kill two birds with one stone" strategy for China's photovoltaic industry to deal with anti-dumping sanctions from Europe and the United States and digest excess capacity. However, it is worth noting that the upgrading of China's photovoltaic industry is the most urgent task at present, regardless of domestic or overseas investment, export or domestic sales

in addition to strengthening the development of domestic and emerging markets, direct investment is undoubtedly an important way to avoid trade barriers and transfer and digest a large amount of production capacity

the core technology of PV industry's consumption reduction and breakthrough technology blockade still needs to be broken through

in recent years, the parity of renewable energy focusing on solar photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation has attracted wide attention. If we want to reverse the situation of "domestic energy consumption, foreign energy conservation" and let the PV capacity be absorbed in China, it is a good medicine. However, at present, the reform of power system has not been successful, and power enterprises still hold a relatively exclusive attitude towards new energy with high cost and unstable power generation, and new energy itself does have many technical problems that have not been broken through. All this makes the prospect of renewable energy parity even more uncertain

if the power system reform is the objective condition for China's photovoltaic industry to absorb capacity in China, then the core technology of photovoltaic enterprises is the subjective condition to ensure survival and development. How can China's photovoltaic industry bid farewell to the criticism of "domestic energy consumption and foreign energy conservation"? Only by making preparations, we can bid farewell to the cold winter with our strongest strength and usher in the spring of the whole industry

the development of photovoltaic needs to improve standards and focus on integration

the answer given by experts is:

leading and improving the industry standard system. Based on independent intellectual property rights, in accordance with market demand and enterprise technology level, in conjunction with relevant standard competent departments, photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises and photovoltaic product application enterprises, we should formulate and improve relevant standards for photovoltaic products and systems, but their mechanical properties are not as good as thermosetting plastic standards. Establish and improve relevant testing institutions and public service platforms, enforce product standards, strengthen product quality inspection and law enforcement, standardize the market with standards, and eliminate backward production capacity

second, strengthen the construction of industry organizations. Accelerate the construction of industry organizations such as China photovoltaic industry alliance, give full play to the role of the alliance as a bridge between government and enterprises, strengthen industry cooperation and self-discipline management, constantly improve the overall image of China's photovoltaic industry, and better respond to and participate in international competition

third, guide enterprises to change their development mode. Support the transformation and upgrading of photovoltaic enterprises, change the previous market strategy of expanding scale and lowering product prices, and focus on technology research and development, product differentiation and quality improvement. Through technological transformation and other means, support backbone enterprises that master independent technology, consolidate and improve core competitiveness

fourth, formulate the identification system of key enterprises and adhere to supporting the excellent and the strong. Support the backbone photovoltaic enterprises to accelerate their development, formulate the administrative measures for the identification of key photovoltaic enterprises and products encouraged by the state, strengthen the industry management and supervision of key photovoltaic enterprises, and organize, coordinate and manage them

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI