Affected by the resonance of multiple factors, the

2022-08-09
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Affected by the resonance of multiple factors, the boom of construction machinery returned to normal from high growth

affected by the resonance of multiple factors, the boom of construction machinery returned to normal from high growth

China Construction machinery information

excavator sales in May showed negative growth again year-on-year since February 2020 (-50.5%). On the one hand, the year-on-year decline in the sales of excavators, on the other hand, the high cost of raw materials in the host plant, what will happen to the pattern of the construction machinery industry represented by excavators

recently, the author visited Hunan excavator accessories wholesale market and communicated with relevant people in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. The consensus view is that the decline in domestic sales of the main engine factory in the past two months is related to a variety of factors. First, the Spring Festival sales are booming this year, and the sensor failure is important. It is also important to measure the cross-section diameter at both ends and the middle of the test piece for a long time. It is mainly because the overload season of the experimental force is ahead of schedule, the market potential in April and may is prepaid, and the base number in the same period last year is high; Second, in the process of using universal tensile testing machine in some terminal cities, the start-up of midfield has decreased month on month, and the downstream market demand has begun to cool down; Third, the construction machinery industry has experienced three rounds of price rises this year, which will also curb the enthusiasm for purchasing machines to a certain extent

for the judgment of the prosperity of the industry in the second half of the year, some securities companies and private equity institutions hold a cautious view. They believe that 200000 excavators were sold in the first may of this year, with a year-on-year increase of about 38%, but the growth rate in the second half of the year will be significantly "downshifted". The excavators are expected to maintain double-digit growth throughout the year, and the sales volume is expected to exceed 380000

behind the decline in the sales of excavators, the market business has weakened

after 1 and tried to imitate leather and other effects, there has been another negative growth month for large, medium and small excavators in 5 months. According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 27220 sets of mining machinery products were sold in May 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%. The domestic market showed negative growth for two consecutive months

with regard to the "cooling" of the excavator sales data of the main engine plant, an insider of a domestic excavator special oil cylinder upstream said that the cyclical changes in the whole industry will affect the company's operation, which can't be completely avoided

she said that the company as an upstream transmission must be relatively early. In fact, the industry has a weak and peak season every year. Generally, the second and third quarters (market) will be relatively weak, and the first and fourth quarters will be prosperous. The first quarter of this year was relatively prosperous. Due to the relatively high base in the same period last year, if you look at the year-on-year data, the previous high growth is currently showing a desalination

in addition to upstream supporting manufacturers, the business of excavator accessories stores was also much lighter than that in the first quarter. On June 21, the author visited the wholesale market of excavator accessories in Hunan, and there were few visitors at the door of each store. Boss Liu, who specializes in excavator accessories such as Sany and Liugong, said, "now the business in the whole market is poor, because there are fewer excavators that need to be repaired and maintained."

a project manager engaged in the construction industry said that there are indeed fewer infrastructure projects than last year. Some planned projects have not yet started, and the demand for excavators, muck trucks and so on will be reduced accordingly. According to his personal knowledge, some people who "raise cars" don't have much work to do now, but the construction of key urban infrastructure projects is not bad

people from securities companies believe that in 2021, driven by the flattening of the overall growth rate of infrastructure, the steady development of real estate and the continuous construction of new rural areas in cities and towns, the domestic market is still the main market for excavators. In the second half of 2021, the sales volume of the domestic market is expected to maintain an overall positive growth, but the growth rate will probably decline

what is the reason for the price increase after the sales volume decreases, besides the cost

as usual in previous years, the excavator market will gradually enter the off-season in May, and the "cake" of the excavator market will no longer continue to "expand", The rising cost of raw materials has become a "barrier" that major OEMs cannot bypass ".

recently, the four major brands of domestic excavators Sany, XCMG, Lingong and Liugong announced price increases one after another, and decided to raise the price of small excavators by 10% and medium excavators by 5% from June 16. The reason is that the overseas industrial chain has been impacted by the epidemic, suppliers are under great pressure, and the comprehensive production cost has increased significantly.

for the reasons for the price increase and the increase of various models, the staff of one of the above-mentioned brand manufacturers said that it may be The price war in the early stage was too fierce, and the sales of xiaodig were basically at a loss. Because the (Sales) growth rate of xiaodig was very rapid, everyone had to grab the market. Both large-scale and medium-sized excavation are profitable, and the competition in small-scale excavation in the industry is particularly fierce. This collective price increase may also be an internal initiative of the industry, and the company will also adjust the price to a certain extent

according to common sense, prices rise in peak seasons; Price reduction in the off-season. In this regard, another view given by insiders is that there is also a reason for not raising prices before. Domestic leading manufacturers such as Sany and XCMG can reduce the dimension of small and medium-sized enterprises by virtue of their technological advantages and industrial chain supply advantages, so as to further improve the market share

judging from the time point of price rise, the recent sharp rise in the market of bulk commodities such as steel has become the "fuse" for the price rise of main engine manufacturers. It was learned that, in fact, in addition to the main engine factory, the prices of upstream manufacturers and accessories wholesale markets have increased. The above-mentioned insiders of upstream manufacturers said, "the company will also be affected by the rise of raw materials such as steel. Most of the product costs are steel, which will also rise a little. Facing these objective factors, the company will deal with them through cost reduction, process improvement and other measures"

boss Liu, who deals in excavator accessories, also said that the prices of all kinds of excavator accessories he operates will rise

Sany Heavy Industry, as the first of the four major brands of excavators mentioned above, according to authoritative statistics, Sany Heavy industry accounted for 15% of the global excavators market in 2020, winning the global sales crown for the first time. For asking the company: can this price increase fully cover the impact of the rise in raw materials on the company's gross profit? In May this year, the domestic sales of excavators fell year-on-year. Will it have an impact on the company's sales in the second half of the year? On the one hand, it did not reply on the ground that it was inconvenient to respond alone

machinery stocks enter the "discount season", or it may take time to repair

February and March are the "highlight" moments for listed construction machinery companies dominated by excavators. For institutional funds, the allocation has been reduced. From the perspective of the trend, the share prices of Sany Heavy Industry (), Liugong (), XCMG machinery (), Hengli hydraulic (), etc. all peaked and fell

taking Sany Heavy Industry, which has the highest market share of excavators, as an example, according to the closing price of 50.3 yuan/share on February 18, the maximum pullback so far is 47.56%. Last year, the sales revenue of Sany mining machinery was 37.528 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.85%, which was the key core of the company's business revenue. The gross profit margin of this product was 34.67%, lower than 38.64% of the previous year

for the recent correction of construction machinery stocks, especially the companies with a high proportion of excavators have entered the "discount season", some market participants believe that the main reason is that the competition of excavators is very fierce, which is the Red Sea market, and the dealers' own profits are very thin, which will give dealers some profits, which is the negative impact of gross profit margin. In addition, the year-on-year decline in off-season sales and the rise in steel costs and other factors have superimposed, resulting in a significant outflow of funds from this sector

a local private equity manager bluntly said, "from the data of May, the cycle has peaked". In recent years, with the wider application scenarios of excavators, leading companies have shared the high growth dividends of the industry. From the perspective of replacement cycle, the replacement cycle of excavators is years, while the last round of infrastructure investment peaked in 2011. From 2021, the demand for replacement will gradually decrease, and domestic equipment sales should peak. According to its sources from research institutions, the order data of some manufacturers in June and July may decline month on month

According to the latest view of CICC, domestic project commencement and excavator sales were suppressed in the second quarter due to factors such as pre demand, environmental supervision, availability of funds, steel prices and so on. It is expected that the above factors will be suppressed in the short term. The excavator utilization index is expected to improve marginally in June, and the trend will be positive in the third quarter. At present, the valuation of Companies in the industry is relatively low

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